Calculated Risk is the fourth episode of the second season, and the seventeenth episode overall. It was released on October 14, 2005.
A woman tries to hurry her son, Daniel, in the morning. The doorbell rings and shortly after shots ring out. Daniel looks out the window to see a black sedan speed away and then sees a gun on the floor from where he is. He goes downstairs and finds her dead. The team are onsite. They identify the victim as Lucinda Shay, CFO at the Syntel Corporation which is being investigated for stock fraud. She was the whistle blower that is the main witness. Don wants to talk to the CEO of the company.
Megan entertains Daniel as Colby brings David up to speed on the gun found at the scene. As he thought, it was a dead end. He suggests they bring the 'wiz-kid' (Charlie) in. Charlie walks up right then. Colby is apologetic. It turns out Charlie knew Shay. He worked with her when the Syntel scandal first broke. Charlie offers all the help he can give. Don talks to Megan about Daniel. He's pretty non-responsive at the moment and she's afraid that if they push too hard he'll shut down completely. Don goes to talk to him. He doesn't respond. Don eventually gets through and Daniel finally answers.
At CalSci Larry enters Charlie's office and asks him about what he's working on. He realises it's for the murder and Larry admits he lost money in the scandal. With Larry's help, Charlie comes to the conclusion that he needs to reconstruct the Syntel fraud. Don meets with Nadine, the prosecution lawyer on the Syntel case over lunch. She wonders if Thomas Galway, the CEO of Syntel, had anything to do with the murder.
Megan and Charlie discuss where they are in the case. Don comes in wondering how long a new tactic should take. If everything works out Charlie could have it in a few hours. Don wonders how Daniel is doing. CFS is going to put him in a group home, but Don doesn't like that idea, so he brings him to the Eppes' house. He asks Alan if Daniel can stay overnight. Alan agrees. Daniel remembers seeing the car outside just after the gunfire. He wants to know if they found who killed Shay. Don explains a bit about how choosing a suspect works. David and Colby look at threatening letters that Lucinda received. Megan comes in asking about Morton Standbury. His letters may have been tame, but he has a nasty temper.
Charlie comes downstairs in the morning wondering who was sleeping in Don's room and finds out that Daniel stayed the night. Don and Megan arrive at the airport to speak with Galway. Galway's son, Malcolm, lets them know about a death threat his father recently received.
Alan talks with Daniel about losing loved ones. Colby shows up at Charlie's office and takes the sights of the space in. He's there to check in about the super computer output. It turns out that there was a glitch in the run and it was inconclusive. Charlie looks at a suspect list that Colby gives him and one name matches a list that he has - Morton Standbury's - though the probability of him actually committing the murder is less than 10%. Colby takes the name and runs with it. Megan, David, and Colby meet at the motel where Standbury is staying to bring him in. He's not there. They find photos of Syntel executives in his room. He arrives and a chase ensues. They bring him in for questioning. The types of letters sent to Shay and Galway are very different, so Megan thinks that there is a chance that Standbury didn't send the one to Galway, but it could have been sent from anywhere so it's hard to tell. Don goes in to talk to him. He tells Don that they'll never find the people responsible.
Daniel enters the garage where Charlie is working and asks him a lot of questions about it. In their talk Charlie has a brainwave off of something Daniel says. Back at the FBI, Nadine says that Standbury said he had evidence against Syntel and showed up at her office. He was turned away. Megan comes in saying Charlie has something to share. Charlie has reconstructed the original fraud. After analysing the trading numbers he noticed that one company was always right which could have only been done by manipulating the market. Five traders made $312 million off of these trades. They think Shay was killed to hide this as she would have eventually found it.
Don and Megan meet with Malcolm Galway as his father just left. After talking about the stock fraud and murder he doesn't think that his father shouldn't talk to the FBI anymore and walks away. Don goes to the Eppes' house to see how Daniel is. He is going through a book of cars that Don gave him. He worries that the people that killed his mother will come after him. Don tries to alleviate his fears and tells him that his grandmother is going to be taking him in. Alan overhears the exchange between the two.
Larry and Charlie are talking about a grant Larry is going for and the case. They're having trouble finding the money. Larry is distracted by a leak in Charlie's office and tries to find the source, giving Charlie another brainwave. The money was transferred through a bunch of loans that were hidden by the fraud. Because the money would be written off in a bankruptcy the traders weren't worried about being caught. David and Colby found that the traders don't exist. They were aliases. Alan calls, Daniel is missing.
Alan is freaking out because Daniel is missing. He was last seen by the phone. Charlie hits redial and the last number dialed was to a cab company. Colby looks into the cab while Don and Megan go to where Don thinks Daniel went - his house. Don finds him in he bathroom where he saw the car speed away. He remembers it was a Mercedes. David and Colby show up at the house. They show him that the hiring manager is the same for all of the fake traders. Galway has been granted permission to leave the country. The team gets to the airport just as Galway and co. are hitting the runway and arrest Malcolm for Shay's murder. He admits to the murder and fraud.
The Eppes family sees Daniel off at the airport. Don makes him an honuorary member of the FBI team. As they leave Alan and Charlie poke fun at Don's chances of becoming a father anytime soon.
The supposed constant circumstantial factoring which every field agent must instinctively perform, and often later justify.
When Larry breaks a pen and dumps the ink into the water on the floor of Charlie's office, he's not wearing a ring on either hand. When there's a close-up shot of his hand swirling the ink in the water, a gold ring has appeared on one of his fingers.
While eating ice cream in the park, the bite in the ice cream appears/disappears.
[This appears on the beginning of the episode] 12 Billion Lost, 6374 Pink Slips, 9 Indictments, 1 Witness